Risk Score Explained
What the TremorWatch risk score means — and what it does not mean.
What the score means
The TremorWatch risk score is an attention-ranking mechanism. It is not a forecast, a probability of disruption, or a guarantee that a shipment will be affected. The score helps teams decide which public signals deserve review first when there are more events than a human can inspect one by one. It is designed to support triage, not replace judgment.
A useful risk score should answer a practical question: should someone look at this now, later, or not at all? TremorWatch scores signals by combining evidence about severity, recency, source type, geography, repetition, and supply-chain relevance. A higher score means the signal has characteristics that make it more likely to matter operationally. It still requires validation against actual supplier and logistics exposure.
Inputs to the score
The score considers severity, recency, source type, geography, repetition, and supply-chain relevance. Severity captures how serious the reported condition may be. Recency prevents stale events from dominating a current review. Source type helps distinguish structured hazard or event data from broader narrative signals. Geography matters because a precise event near a known corridor is more actionable than a vague regional mention.
Repetition is important because one public signal may be incomplete or duplicated. Repeated signals in the same area, category, or time window can indicate a pattern that deserves more attention. Supply-chain relevance connects the event to mechanisms such as road access, port operations, rail reliability, production regions, commodity exposure, labor availability, energy infrastructure, or customs movement.
How teams should use it
A high score should trigger investigation: check exposed suppliers, routes, commodities, inventory buffers, customer commitments, and alternative logistics options. The right next action is specific. Which supplier is near the event? Which route could be constrained? Which purchase orders are time-sensitive? Which substitute material or carrier option is available if the signal becomes a confirmed disruption?
A medium score is usually a monitoring signal. It may deserve review if the company has known exposure in the region or commodity category. A low score should not be ignored forever, but it normally stays below the action line unless it repeats, moves closer to an exposed asset, or combines with other signals. The score is most useful when it is paired with a company's own supplier geography and lane data.
Limitations
No public-data score can see private inventory, supplier capacity, contract terms, or shipment-level details. Public sources can be late, duplicated, or imprecise. TremorWatch therefore avoids presenting scores as predictions. The score is a way to order attention and reduce noise. Decisions should still be grounded in supplier communication, carrier updates, official advisories, and internal operating data.